Surrogate endpoints in cost-effectiveness analysis

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has published a report which offers guidance on best practice for using surrogate endpoints in health economic models to guide health technology assessment decisions. When looking at the evidence of effectiveness of new treatments, independent committees look at the long-term effects on health that a drug might have. For example, when assessing a new drug that lowers blood pressure, considering whether the drug lowers blood pressure, and whether this reduction in blood pressure will lead to it preventing heart attacks or strokes.  The short-term effect – lowering blood pressure – is a surrogate endpoint, and it is used to predict the longer-term effect – preventing strokes and heart attacks.